🔗 Share this article

Mounting apprehensions have emerged about the possibility of military engagement among Horn of Africa neighbours, the Ethiopian government and Eritrea, as confrontational discourse has intensified in recent weeks.

What Has Ethiopia Stated?

Ethiopia's, being landlocked, demands for entry to the Red Sea through Eritrean territory has provoked a heated war of words.

PM Abiy Ahmed previously announced in 2023 that his nation's access to the sea was an vital issue, statements that Eritrea ignored.

Ties between the neighboring nations have regularly been difficult. Following a long-standing struggle for freedom, Eritrea, which has a extensive Red Sea coastline, legally broke away from Ethiopia in 1993, leaving it without sea access.

Five years later, a military clash started in which more than 100,000 people died.

Recent Comments from Ethiopia's Government

Abiy and army chief General Birhanu Jula have directly stated sovereignty of Eritrea's southern port of the port of Assab – approximately 60 kilometers from the border - and suggested the wish to capture it through military means.

On 1 September, Abiy said the country's "error" of losing entry to the sea as a due to Eritrea secession would be "corrected soon".

The Ethiopian envoy to neighboring Kenya, retired Gen Bacha Debele, said that Assab was "belonging to Ethiopia" and would be returned "by force".

Eritrea's Answer to the Threats

In the face of persistent threats from Ethiopia, Eritrea's reaction has been restricted to concise remarks on online platforms from Information Minister Yemane G..

He has rejected Ethiopia's demand for maritime entry calling it "hazardous" and a "toxic agenda" of "territorial claims" – a strategy of claiming back lost territory.

Government spokespeople alerted on mid-September that moves to legitimise "obvious provocation" would have significant repercussions for Ethiopia and its neighbouring countries and is a "redline that should not be crossed|violated|breached".

Military Movements on the Ground

Currently, there are few indications of major military movements in the boundary zones between the two countries.

However, in the country, national TV has displayed graduation ceremonies of many recruits at multiple army bases.

The head of human resources department of the armed forces, the officer, stated recently in an discussion that the army was in a "reliable position" as "many thousands of recruits" were entering service, which he said was "a warning to our opponents".

Historical Origins of the Conflict

For more than half a century from 1890, Eritrea was administered by Italian rulers.

Following Italy's defeat, it was then administered by the UK forces before turning into a federated part of the Ethiopian empire.

Yet in the early 1960s the Ethiopian emperor cancelled this arrangement and Eritrea became totally absorbed into Ethiopia.

A extended internal conflict followed, ending with the government's loss in the early 1990s. Sovereignty was then approved by Eritreans in a plebiscite in 1993.

Briefly in the 1990s, there were good relations between the leadership in Ethiopia's capital and Asmara, but they clashed over the precise positioning of their mutual frontier, causing war in 1998.

Although this concluded in a ceasefire agreement in 2000, it was never fully implemented, and the both countries continued at loggerheads.

This ended in 2018, when Abiy made overtures to Eritrea's leader Isaias Afwerki. The two agreed to a announcement that the conflict was over – a move that earned Abiy the international recognition.

The neighboring states were then allies in Ethiopia's 2020-2022 civil war in Tigray.

Yet ties have subsequently deteriorated again.