In a move hailed by many as the greatest play for power of the past century, Cameron has decided to begin outlining his plans to form government at 14.30.  Having looked at the individual seats it seems certain that Cameron will reach his total of 306. Whether he can expand on it is anyone’s guess, but his decision to outline his plans shows that he has something up his back pocket, like for example the rumoured 10 seats in Northern Ireland.

Not only does it show that he has something in his hand, it will also force the question of the legitimacy of a Labour attempt to take power, and most likely lead to a defeat at any forthcoming general election, which there is likely to be due to the small majority the Conservatives would be able to reach.

The Liberal Democrats are still trying to ascertain what Cameron is offering, and a meeting on Sunday should decide whether whatever is proposed is accepted. Proportional Representation is the price. There are other offers that could be on the table such as fixed term parliaments.

Yet none of that is enough. The Conservative and Liberal Democrat policies are at odds, with their priorities differing vastly. Green Issues, Non-doms and a Mansion tax, are three things the Lib Dems stand for, and the Tories against. One represents a party of Europhiles, and the other of Eurosceptics. Reconciling those differences, considering that in terms of vote share 39.1% of the coalition’s electors would be Liberal Democrats, will be so key that a parliament is unlikely to be formed efficiently or quickly. The Tories have long been divided over Cameron’s shift closer to Labour, and this could truly emphasise that shift, perhaps in extreme resulting in certain MPs revolting to UKIP.

Gordon Brown remains ‘prime ministerial’ according to the BBC and continues to talk about fairness, though whether this message is being received is still unclear. The electorate have not yet answered anyone’s call.

“The BBC projections show the shape of two possible rival power blocs:

LAB: 261
LD: 55
SDLP: 3
ALLIANCE: 1
Possible total: 320
CON: 306
DUP: 8
IND UN: 1
Possible total: 315

Non-aligned:
SNP + PC: 9
GREEN: 1″

From data like this it’s abundantly clear that Plaid Cymru and the SNP will prove the defining force in the rush to form a government, and the question remains, what is their price. The SNP look unlikely to join to the Conservatives due to the Conservatives intention to look into the Barnett Formula that provides Scotland with funding.  Stemming the tide of cuts in their respective constituencies appears to be the price of their vote a quick scan of their website suggests.  The green MP is unlikely to go to the Tories, considering their wishy-washy policy on the Environment which David Cameron preaches, but not everyone believes, which has also taken a back foot in the campaign.

Thoughts?

A Conservative Minority Government now seems on the cards, which would be facilitated by an extra 13 seats from Northern Ireland which would take their total to 320 on current predictions.

But the chances of a Lib-Lab pact, despite The Liberal Democrats only receiving 22.1% of the vote which has lead to them losing 11 seats and gaining a further four, are still high, as accompanied by the SNP and Plaid Cymru they would get 313 + that extra 9, taking them to 322.

Nick Griffin was beaten back in Barking, the Greens have taken their first ever seat in Brighton Pavillion, Northern Ireland’s first minister has been overthrown by the Alliance Party in his seat in East Belfast.

Again a large number of people have been turned away, leading to the possibility of a legal challenge, although 10.00 was the final time to receive your ballot paper in the legal system.  Over 5000 were apparently turned away from one polling station.

Labour have made losses in Wales of four seats, gained a share of the vote in Scotland, but in England the overall swing has been around 7% to the Conservatives. The total swing so far is 5.3%

It also looks possible that the Conservatives may overshoot that estimate because with 100 seats left to declare they’re only expected to take 13 of those, but it now seems likely that more will fall considering the rest of the night’s results. But if you have a look at the percentage rise in the Conservatives vote, it has only risen by 3.9% on four years ago. Comparing that to previous governments, the share of the vote has always been higher than 36%, and a change in government has always resulted from a much larger rise in share of the vote.

You may well have heard Lord Mandelson dismiss the First Past the Post System which we’ll be discussing later, and of all the rhetoric the best of the night was Lord Ashdown who said last night, “

Many of the first few Conservative target seats survived including Birmingham Edgebaston, with some even increasing their Labour or Liberal Democrat majority. Cameron is still promising ‘to do what is right for this country.’

As always more coverage on the BBC.

Hung Parliament. The poll puts the Conservatives on 307 seats, Labour on 255, the Liberal Democrats on 59 and others on 29.
Can this poll be trusted?
Lib Dems into negative numbers, and a hung parliament. Unlikely scenario I think. Down to the results now.
Still queues in the polling stations, and people will now be unable to vote!

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/shared/election2010/liveevent/

Just to be clear no results have yet been announced, but latest figures from Sporting Index seem to place the Tories with between 325 and 330 seats, which with support from Northern Ireland would be enough to form a majority government.

5 minutes left and people all over the country are standing in queues waiting to vote. Hurry up I say! The clock’s ticking, and over at the Guardian the Labour propaganda machine is still turning against the Conservatives, hoping to stem the tide. Neil Kinnock is being mentioned, and Margaret Thatcher’s agenda is back on the cards.

The question now is simply, do the exit polls agree with these, and crucially, are they right?
Head on over to the BBC to check out the latest.

Ronald Reagan Chopping Wood

The final 35 minutes are about to start. In all likelihood most votes have already been cast, and signs from around the country, particularly in Barking, show that there have been high turnouts. Twitter is reporting huge queues for polling in the Newington area, and general signs are good. The Anti-BNP voters have turned out in force, accompanied by police.

There are two new rumors spreading. One is of a 39% Conservative, with Labour and Liberal Democrats fighting for second. The other is Conservatives 37%, and Labour and the Lib Dems on 26% each. It’s important to note that these are only rumors, and that exit polls are notoriously unreliable, though it’s not quite clear whether these are exit polls. Also, between 12% and a quarter of all votes were cast by post before Cleggmania happened.

10.45 is the official timing of  Sunderland Central, and the rest of Sunderland should soon follow. It’s a safe labour seat, notionally so the initial results will seemed skewed towards Labour, but overall impressions are heading the opposite way.

Latest News : Gordon sleeping after Lamb stew, Dave chopping wood.

1. Three-horse Race

Before the leaders’ debates, most assumed it was a foregone conclusion. Brown would falter, Cameron would triumph and Clegg would provide comic relief. This was not the case. Clegg, addressing the camera directly, appeared to hold common ground with many voters, and days later polls showed the Lib Dems to be second or even first, leaving Labour and the Conservatives trailing. Though he was to fare worse with the other debates, following Cameron essentially adopting his combative debating style, Clegg’s performance proved the Lib Dems could still pose a threat, one viewed seriously enough to warrant plans for a  possible coalition.

2. The Posters

David Cameron’s first election posters provoked ridicule and parody throughout parliament and the internet. At last, thought Labour supporters, Cameron is coming across for what he is; airbrushed, vague and phony. Tony Blair mocked the ‘Vote for Change’ slogan. Posters were defaced. Labour was gaining the upper hand. At least, until they released their own posters, portraying ‘Dave’ as the fictional 1980s detective Gene Hunt, known for his non-PC attitude. Evidently, no-one at Labour HQ realised Hunt’s popularity. Cameron retaliated immediately, expressing his admiration for the comparison, while the Tories rattled off their own version. Labour’s campaign was not working.

3. Bigotgate

The worst was yet to come. Gillian Duffy, a widowed pensioner, confronted the PM over immigration, expressing her concern about uncontrolled Eastern European immigration. While he maintained a calm composure publicly, calling her a ‘good woman’, Brown revealed his true colours when he was heard calling her a ‘bigoted woman’, thanks to a Sky News lapel microphone. The ensuing furore ensured this was the moment the re-election campaign finally collapsed. Brown’s efforts to apologise were futile. Offering to invite Duffy to 10 Downing Street, she responded, saying how she didn’t think he would be there much longer. The scandal revealed to many Labour’s supposed dislike for its own regular voters, along with furthering the immigration debate.

4. The Wives

What better way to see the election than through the leaders’ wives? At least, if you were a newspaper editor. There was never a dull news day with exciting stories about which wife was winning the fashion battle, or the mothering melée. There was Sarah Brown, the Twitter Tsarina, well known for her charity work. Her opposition, Samantha Cameron, or SamCam, was already popular among voters, due to her down-to-earth approach and political ingenuity, engaging with the electorate through her own video logs. After announcing her pregnancy, it seemed there was nothing to stop her becoming the next ‘first lady’. Enter Miriam Clegg. Decidedly withrawn compared to the other two, Mrs Clegg was content with the occasional appearance. Her Spanish nationality struck a chord with the new, Europhile voters attracted to the Lib Dems after the leaders’ debates. Evidently, voting for someone due to their wife is a flimsy reason to vote, but nonetheless these three women were there to show their spouses’ human features, with varying success.

5. The Other Parties

The anti-Europe party UKIP gained the initiative when their outspoken leader, Nigel Farage, quit to challenge the speaker John Bercow’s Buckingham constituency. Though Bercow was gifted with a sizeable majority, the main parties had agreed not to stand agaisnt him, because his position was essentially non-political. Thanks to their absence, and barring any more plane crashes, Farage is likely to beat Bercow, since many conservative voters believe Bercow is closer to Labour than the Tories. Farage’s victory would give UKIP their first-ever MP. Meanwhile, the Green Party leader Caroline Lucas is the favourite to win the Brighton Pavilion seat. Perhaps these small movements show how democracy is not dead, with only a few parties able to gain power, and how, despite the fact it is only one single vote, your vote counts.

We’ll have more later when the results come. Let us know what you think. Leave a comment below.

Brown sat alone, as the sun shone through his window. His hands, white with tension, gripped the mahogany desk, while he tried to spin his chair around. It was impossible. The hands were preventing a full rotation.

‘Gordon? Are you there?’ Shrilled a voice behind the door. Miliband. But which one? Brown shrugged to himself and set about trying to spin his chair. A knock. Then the door groaned open.

‘What is it, Ed?’ he asked, pulling his chair closer.

‘David, actually’ he mumbled. ‘President Obama sends his congratulations.’

‘Can I speak with him?’

‘He’s gone. Said he was rushed, had to go and play golf.’

‘Obama. He’s a good person.’ Brown checked his lapels with faux-nostalgia,before adding ‘he’d better not send me some more DVDs.’

Miliband laughed, and Brown reciprocated with a smile. Today had gone well. The Tories would be unelectable for decades. Their spending cuts had crippled Britain, and they had sought to undo all Labour’s good work. Today, Cameron packed up Downing Street, returning to opposition. He resigned, deciding to spend more time with his family. George Osborne had filled the void, but Boris Johnson was indicating his interest, next year perhaps.

‘You know, David, I think I’m getting old.’ Miliband perked up.

‘Oh, no, Gordon. You aren’t a day over forty.’ This was it. He was about to ask him to lead. All these years.

‘I just think, seeing how good it is to communicate with the British youth, would you tweet me?’

‘I beg your pardon?’ said Miliband, disappointedly.

‘Tweet me?’ He stared at Miliband, puppy-dog eye expectant.

Miliband clenched his fist. The man was never going to give up power. He stopped the Lib Dem coalition because Clegg wanted to lead. He prevented the Mandelson take over. He’d clung on for such a long time, yet nobody wanted him. And besides, nobody used Twitter anymore!

‘Yes, Prime Minister. I will ‘tweet’ you.’

‘Thank you.’ Miliband left. Brown revolved, having relinquished his grip. He was here to stay.

First the media were going wild over ‘Cleggmania’ – the surprising win of the Liberal Democrat leader Nick Clegg in the first ever televised Prime Ministerial Debate. However, now the Lib Dem’s have slipped out of their lead in the polls the thing everyone is now focusing on is the prospect of what everyone is calling a ‘hung parliament’. Judging by the amount of people who have asked me exactly what a hung parliament is over the last few days, I don’t think the public quite understand what one of these would entail…

First, to understand a hung parliament you need to understand First Past The Post, the voting system Britain currently operates under. England, Scotland and Wales are split up into areas called constituencies. There are 650 of these, and each of the main parties (and all the smaller ones as well) put up a candidate in each to run for election. This is how we elect MP’s, and for a candidate to become the MP he or she needs to get one more vote than the candidate that comes in second place. For each MP a party obtains they gain a seat in parliament. This is where all the problems start. For a party to have a majority, aka. being able to form the government and make their leader Prime Minister without any problems they need to have at least 326 (just over 50%) of the seats in parliament. If no party obtains at least 326 of the seats we have what is called a hung parliament. This is a problem because for a government to be able to pass laws they promised to pass in their manifesto they have to win a vote on that issue in parliament. If they do not have more MP’s than all the other parties put together it makes it harder for them to push through legislation. If Labour lose 24 seats or the Conservatives fail to gain 116 more, Britain will be left with a hung parliament.

So what happens in the event of a hung parliament? This is actually where Nick Clegg and the Lib Dem’s rising popularity come in. In the event of a hung parliament, in order for a party to be able to operate without a majority but still be able to form a government some form of coalition or pact needs to be made between the Liberal Democrats and either New Labour or the Tories. Nick Clegg has made it clear he will support the party with the largest mandate (who the public has indicated they want the most) to govern, but he is still not clear if this will be the party with the most votes or the largest number of seats, as this is not always the same party. However, Clegg has made it clear that his price for forming a coalition with his party is a look at, with a view to change the current voting system to a form of Proportional Representation, which is a voting system that would make the number of seats a party holds in parliament more reflective of the amount of votes cast for that party across the country.

Under the current First Past The Post system, as there is not the same number of people living in each constituency, so the party with the largest number of seats is not always the party with the most public votes, something which many people including members of the Liberal Democrats call unfair. Smaller parties would be able to gain more power (including extremist parties, the BNP have representatives in European parliament because those elections use a form of Proportional Representation) and it would be difficult for a party to gain at least 50% of the seats in parliament, forcing more coalition governments or pacts between parties. The Conservatives won’t outright say no to Proportional Representation, but they have made it clear they favour the current system, and as the Lib Dems are insisting on it this could cause a problem if the two parties wish to form a coalition after the election. The Nick Clegg is making the same demands of the Labour party, if they were to receive the largest mandate but a change of Labour leadership from current Prime Minister Gordon Brown would also be most likely be included in the deal. This would probably not cause much of a problem as many in the Labour party already wish to replace Brown as their leader.

In an article in The Times last week Conservative leader David Cameron outlined the consequences of a hung parliament, including the very possible crisis of the pound. Coalition governments are seen as weak as they rarely last, so there is a risk that the international market will lose faith in Britain and its government, and therefore its currency and Britain could face a ‘double dip’ recession, falling back into the economic hardships it is finally recovering from. Another financial issue with a weak coalition is because they rarely last, there is a suggestion of another election before Christmas and elections cost a country a lot of money to hold. A hung parliament can also be seen as undesirable because with the Conservative and Liberal Democrat promises to ‘clean up politics’ in the aftermath of the MP’s expenses scandal, more decisions would be made behind closed doors in the event of a coalition between the parties, warring between their own conflicting ideologies, and this would not be the open and transparent politics that the parties are promising.

Of course, with such a bridging of the gap between Labour and the Liberal Democrats, and a new leader, who is to say that the two parties will not join forces on a grander scale than even the proposed 1997 Lib-Lab Pact? In fact, while for the conservatives proportional representation, and thus only between 27% – 40% of the poll, would be a disaster, for a unified Lib-Lab 38(on lowest polling over the past two years) – 62% (on current polling) victory would be almost guaranteed. A hung parliament is not the only option in this Election, but with Blair gone, is a Lib-Lab pact still possible?

So what can you do if you don’t want a hung parliament? Due to the First Past The Post system the only two parties who have a realistic chance of gaining a majority are Labour and the Conservatives. You must vote for what you believe in. However, if you do want to vote tactically and at whatever cost to avoid a hung parliament, according to the opinion polls over the last few weeks the party with the strongest lead is the Conservative party, but as I have just shown, that lead does not translate into seats, and therefore Labour still have the best chance of forming a government which is not a balanced parliament. But they may seek to introduce a system of proportional voting, and so to avoid that, the Conservatives remain your only option.

By Rachel Phipps

How long will Gordon's grin/grimace remain?

Just five months ago, the Conservative party was holding an apparently unassailable lead over Labour of around 19%. All of the newspapers were backing a landslide victory by the Tories in the General election. Even the Sun newspaper, a renowned backer of the Labour party, left their ranks and joined the growing swell of conservative followers, denouncing them at every opportunity. It even surprised me that they didn’t give every page 3 girl a tattoo saying ‘Vote Tory’ on their left breast.

Five months ago, David Cameron could sit back and laugh while Gordon Brown committed political suicide again and again, whether it be from his poor letter writing skills, or his smile that could make Wayne Rooney cringe in disgust. ‘Have I got news for you’ even stated that ‘Gordon Brown had a bad week’ was the closest thing they had to a catchphrase. Five months on however, the picture is very different. The gap, according to YouGov has been marginalised so that less people would notice it than those on the Underground. That gap is now just a 6% lead. If an election was held tomorrow, a hung parliament would be the most likely outcome with no party winning am outright majority . This last happened in 1973 with Harold Wilson and Labour eventually calling another election which produced their victory. It is unlikely that any of the three major parties would form a coalition government with each other as Nick Clegg has ruled out joining with Labour, and the price would be too high for the Conservatives, as a crucial Lib Dem policy would mean that the Conservative Government would never be able to gain a majority again.

  How did Labour manage to claw this far back into the running? The last time that Labour had a lead over the Conservatives was way back in January 2008. This shows that the crucial factor could have been the Credit Crunch, which the ruling party would naturally have been blamed for. This has now apparently come to an end, though surely people would have blamed Labour for us coming out of it last? The reason could be that Gordon Brown has somehow managed to be so dislikeable that people have started to pity the poor Premier of our nation. He has still been committing political suicide regularly, being caught in a grumpy mood and then putting on a huge smile as he neared the cameras (which with him is quite difficult to distinguish), even bullying his staff. Yet people don’t seem to care anymore whom we have representing our country at the top level… it’s all too similar to the John Terry affair. Why is John Terry cheating his team-mate any different to Gordon cheating his economy, his country, and then committing domestic abuse against the people who run his day to day life? I don’t understand it. At this rate, our parliament is going to be hung; no one will gain a majority so we are going to have another general election called by the Queen. Eventually, a winner will be ground out. I just hope it isn’t Labour, Gordon Brown has a smile that makes my brothers cry… and they’re all over twenty.