I’ve been waiting to put my two cents in. Nick Clegg’s just headed into the Liberal Democrats headquarters so we’ll see what happens there. For now, you’ll have to abide with me (well, if you want.)

Naturally, I’m a labour supporter. I tend to side with Labour because I want my vote to be helping others not just myself. This is the way I see Labour’s principle of redistributing wealth, that it is necessary to spread this burden in a way that helps the poorest because everyone deserves a certain Quality of Life.

Labour have diverged a lot from that principle. I’m ashamed to say that I think Labour have failed us, on more counts than one. There have been good things in the past few years but crucially there has been a huge split between where we were meant to be going, to where we ended up. Gordon Brown has not been radical, he’s not been elected, and he hasn’t been a driving force in any way. That’s not to say Brown doesn’t have his plus points, as I’m sure he does, as rarely reported as they are.

But the Conservatives have always illustrated selfishness to me. They favour lower taxes, and less government, which means less job creation in the public sector and less money for the poor. You don’t have to agree with this. In fact I hope you don’t, so long as your reason not to is solid.

I’ve been flip flopping all day about how I think this will go. Labour and the Liberal Democrats seem less and less likely to sign a pact, but then more and more Liberal Democrats are beginning to question their party on the basis that it might join the right-wing Conservatives who are far away from its principles. Some of the Tories support proportional representation, but a huge majority hate the very idea because it won’t result in them holding power very often, and it will result in so-called ‘weak government’. So in theory a Lib Dem-Tory pact should be off the cards, but now more than ever it seems well and truly on the cards, though whether this is all just for show remains to be seen.

It’s also important to note that the Conservatives received ONLY 36% of the vote. That has never been, until now, sufficient to form a government. They can tell you how many seats they’ve won, how they’re the only party who can legally govern but their share of the vote would not be sufficient anywhere else to govern. I apologise for how biased that may appear, but I wanted to make the fact clear.

Will there be the new kind of politics that the Liberal Democrats used to want? Or will we just see a quick election and a Conservative majority?
I don’t know. And nor does anyone else. So register your comments below and we’ll see if you can beat the experts.

Reminder : Everything’s happening on the BBC

Some New links :

Tory Teenager : Self-explanatory really, a blog.
Labour List : Labour themed Discussion
Lib Dem Blogs : A whole list of Liberal Democrat posts. My personal favourite.

David Cameron’s speech is leaving much to be desired so far.  It’s filled with rhetoric about a strong government, and about the importance of stability in a war, and essentially trying to place himself in Thatcher’s shoes, with constant references to her. The Conservatives have gained more seats than at anyone time since Margaret Thatcher.

Crucially he offers his hand to the Liberal Democrats, promising negotiation on Education policy, and a low carbon economy. It appears proportional representation is also on the cards, though whether we can count an all party inquiry has proper reform remains to be seen. It sounds like it will be just enough of a promise to get through the Queen’s speech and then call another election without giving anything away.

A further critique of the Labour government as leaving the worst inheritance in 60 years leaves Cameron to go out on a powerful note, as their remain only 9 seats to be divided. According to the BBC, the question now is, whether he was talking of a coalition, or a minority government, but with Brown on fighting form after an address at 10 Downing Street earlier, it looks like a coalition will be the only way to halt him seeking a pact with the Liberal Democrats.

Widespread support for Proportional representation is increasingly the message in response to Cameron’s speech. We may well see a Conservative Government pay its ultimate price to form a coalition.

For Clegg’s speech and instant reactions head over to the BBC‘s coverage, otherwise we’ll be updating you at 5.00.

A rather more comical view on the election in the form of the song Blue and Yellow, by The Used.

In a move hailed by many as the greatest play for power of the past century, Cameron has decided to begin outlining his plans to form government at 14.30.  Having looked at the individual seats it seems certain that Cameron will reach his total of 306. Whether he can expand on it is anyone’s guess, but his decision to outline his plans shows that he has something up his back pocket, like for example the rumoured 10 seats in Northern Ireland.

Not only does it show that he has something in his hand, it will also force the question of the legitimacy of a Labour attempt to take power, and most likely lead to a defeat at any forthcoming general election, which there is likely to be due to the small majority the Conservatives would be able to reach.

The Liberal Democrats are still trying to ascertain what Cameron is offering, and a meeting on Sunday should decide whether whatever is proposed is accepted. Proportional Representation is the price. There are other offers that could be on the table such as fixed term parliaments.

Yet none of that is enough. The Conservative and Liberal Democrat policies are at odds, with their priorities differing vastly. Green Issues, Non-doms and a Mansion tax, are three things the Lib Dems stand for, and the Tories against. One represents a party of Europhiles, and the other of Eurosceptics. Reconciling those differences, considering that in terms of vote share 39.1% of the coalition’s electors would be Liberal Democrats, will be so key that a parliament is unlikely to be formed efficiently or quickly. The Tories have long been divided over Cameron’s shift closer to Labour, and this could truly emphasise that shift, perhaps in extreme resulting in certain MPs revolting to UKIP.

Gordon Brown remains ‘prime ministerial’ according to the BBC and continues to talk about fairness, though whether this message is being received is still unclear. The electorate have not yet answered anyone’s call.

“The BBC projections show the shape of two possible rival power blocs:

LAB: 261
LD: 55
SDLP: 3
ALLIANCE: 1
Possible total: 320
CON: 306
DUP: 8
IND UN: 1
Possible total: 315

Non-aligned:
SNP + PC: 9
GREEN: 1″

From data like this it’s abundantly clear that Plaid Cymru and the SNP will prove the defining force in the rush to form a government, and the question remains, what is their price. The SNP look unlikely to join to the Conservatives due to the Conservatives intention to look into the Barnett Formula that provides Scotland with funding.  Stemming the tide of cuts in their respective constituencies appears to be the price of their vote a quick scan of their website suggests.  The green MP is unlikely to go to the Tories, considering their wishy-washy policy on the Environment which David Cameron preaches, but not everyone believes, which has also taken a back foot in the campaign.

Thoughts?

A Conservative Minority Government now seems on the cards, which would be facilitated by an extra 13 seats from Northern Ireland which would take their total to 320 on current predictions.

But the chances of a Lib-Lab pact, despite The Liberal Democrats only receiving 22.1% of the vote which has lead to them losing 11 seats and gaining a further four, are still high, as accompanied by the SNP and Plaid Cymru they would get 313 + that extra 9, taking them to 322.

Nick Griffin was beaten back in Barking, the Greens have taken their first ever seat in Brighton Pavillion, Northern Ireland’s first minister has been overthrown by the Alliance Party in his seat in East Belfast.

Again a large number of people have been turned away, leading to the possibility of a legal challenge, although 10.00 was the final time to receive your ballot paper in the legal system.  Over 5000 were apparently turned away from one polling station.

Labour have made losses in Wales of four seats, gained a share of the vote in Scotland, but in England the overall swing has been around 7% to the Conservatives. The total swing so far is 5.3%

It also looks possible that the Conservatives may overshoot that estimate because with 100 seats left to declare they’re only expected to take 13 of those, but it now seems likely that more will fall considering the rest of the night’s results. But if you have a look at the percentage rise in the Conservatives vote, it has only risen by 3.9% on four years ago. Comparing that to previous governments, the share of the vote has always been higher than 36%, and a change in government has always resulted from a much larger rise in share of the vote.

You may well have heard Lord Mandelson dismiss the First Past the Post System which we’ll be discussing later, and of all the rhetoric the best of the night was Lord Ashdown who said last night, “

Many of the first few Conservative target seats survived including Birmingham Edgebaston, with some even increasing their Labour or Liberal Democrat majority. Cameron is still promising ‘to do what is right for this country.’

As always more coverage on the BBC.

Hung Parliament. The poll puts the Conservatives on 307 seats, Labour on 255, the Liberal Democrats on 59 and others on 29.
Can this poll be trusted?
Lib Dems into negative numbers, and a hung parliament. Unlikely scenario I think. Down to the results now.
Still queues in the polling stations, and people will now be unable to vote!

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/shared/election2010/liveevent/

Just to be clear no results have yet been announced, but latest figures from Sporting Index seem to place the Tories with between 325 and 330 seats, which with support from Northern Ireland would be enough to form a majority government.

5 minutes left and people all over the country are standing in queues waiting to vote. Hurry up I say! The clock’s ticking, and over at the Guardian the Labour propaganda machine is still turning against the Conservatives, hoping to stem the tide. Neil Kinnock is being mentioned, and Margaret Thatcher’s agenda is back on the cards.

The question now is simply, do the exit polls agree with these, and crucially, are they right?
Head on over to the BBC to check out the latest.

1. Three-horse Race

Before the leaders’ debates, most assumed it was a foregone conclusion. Brown would falter, Cameron would triumph and Clegg would provide comic relief. This was not the case. Clegg, addressing the camera directly, appeared to hold common ground with many voters, and days later polls showed the Lib Dems to be second or even first, leaving Labour and the Conservatives trailing. Though he was to fare worse with the other debates, following Cameron essentially adopting his combative debating style, Clegg’s performance proved the Lib Dems could still pose a threat, one viewed seriously enough to warrant plans for a  possible coalition.

2. The Posters

David Cameron’s first election posters provoked ridicule and parody throughout parliament and the internet. At last, thought Labour supporters, Cameron is coming across for what he is; airbrushed, vague and phony. Tony Blair mocked the ‘Vote for Change’ slogan. Posters were defaced. Labour was gaining the upper hand. At least, until they released their own posters, portraying ‘Dave’ as the fictional 1980s detective Gene Hunt, known for his non-PC attitude. Evidently, no-one at Labour HQ realised Hunt’s popularity. Cameron retaliated immediately, expressing his admiration for the comparison, while the Tories rattled off their own version. Labour’s campaign was not working.

3. Bigotgate

The worst was yet to come. Gillian Duffy, a widowed pensioner, confronted the PM over immigration, expressing her concern about uncontrolled Eastern European immigration. While he maintained a calm composure publicly, calling her a ‘good woman’, Brown revealed his true colours when he was heard calling her a ‘bigoted woman’, thanks to a Sky News lapel microphone. The ensuing furore ensured this was the moment the re-election campaign finally collapsed. Brown’s efforts to apologise were futile. Offering to invite Duffy to 10 Downing Street, she responded, saying how she didn’t think he would be there much longer. The scandal revealed to many Labour’s supposed dislike for its own regular voters, along with furthering the immigration debate.

4. The Wives

What better way to see the election than through the leaders’ wives? At least, if you were a newspaper editor. There was never a dull news day with exciting stories about which wife was winning the fashion battle, or the mothering melée. There was Sarah Brown, the Twitter Tsarina, well known for her charity work. Her opposition, Samantha Cameron, or SamCam, was already popular among voters, due to her down-to-earth approach and political ingenuity, engaging with the electorate through her own video logs. After announcing her pregnancy, it seemed there was nothing to stop her becoming the next ‘first lady’. Enter Miriam Clegg. Decidedly withrawn compared to the other two, Mrs Clegg was content with the occasional appearance. Her Spanish nationality struck a chord with the new, Europhile voters attracted to the Lib Dems after the leaders’ debates. Evidently, voting for someone due to their wife is a flimsy reason to vote, but nonetheless these three women were there to show their spouses’ human features, with varying success.

5. The Other Parties

The anti-Europe party UKIP gained the initiative when their outspoken leader, Nigel Farage, quit to challenge the speaker John Bercow’s Buckingham constituency. Though Bercow was gifted with a sizeable majority, the main parties had agreed not to stand agaisnt him, because his position was essentially non-political. Thanks to their absence, and barring any more plane crashes, Farage is likely to beat Bercow, since many conservative voters believe Bercow is closer to Labour than the Tories. Farage’s victory would give UKIP their first-ever MP. Meanwhile, the Green Party leader Caroline Lucas is the favourite to win the Brighton Pavilion seat. Perhaps these small movements show how democracy is not dead, with only a few parties able to gain power, and how, despite the fact it is only one single vote, your vote counts.

We’ll have more later when the results come. Let us know what you think. Leave a comment below.

NEW UPDATE : Latest Predictions say that 12% swing to the Tories would result in an extra 89 seats for the Conservatives, rising to 116 if SNP and LD seats also fall which could result in their share of the vote being anything from 299-326.

The Latest Polls average to 36 % Conservative, 28 % Labour, 27 % Liberal Democrats.  On the current seat predictions the conservatives resulting in 297 seats. But other polls have shown that in Marginal seats there has been a 12% swing to the tories, on the basis of which, an extra 10-15 seats could come his way, not sufficient to allow him to form a majority governments but with the help of Northern Ireland, sufficient to form a government. All hopes of Lib-Lab Coalition would then be ruined, even with the support of Plaid Cymru and the Scottish National Party.

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If you want to comment on the election go over to UK Polling Report, or to keep abreast of things as they happen tonight visit the BBC, who as always are offering instant feedback on everything as soon as it happens.

Any comments, breaking gaffes or news from the election, post below!