“The BBC projections show the shape of two possible rival power blocs:

LAB: 261
LD: 55
SDLP: 3
ALLIANCE: 1
Possible total: 320
CON: 306
DUP: 8
IND UN: 1
Possible total: 315

Non-aligned:
SNP + PC: 9
GREEN: 1″

From data like this it’s abundantly clear that Plaid Cymru and the SNP will prove the defining force in the rush to form a government, and the question remains, what is their price. The SNP look unlikely to join to the Conservatives due to the Conservatives intention to look into the Barnett Formula that provides Scotland with funding.  Stemming the tide of cuts in their respective constituencies appears to be the price of their vote a quick scan of their website suggests.  The green MP is unlikely to go to the Tories, considering their wishy-washy policy on the Environment which David Cameron preaches, but not everyone believes, which has also taken a back foot in the campaign.

Thoughts?

A Conservative Minority Government now seems on the cards, which would be facilitated by an extra 13 seats from Northern Ireland which would take their total to 320 on current predictions.

But the chances of a Lib-Lab pact, despite The Liberal Democrats only receiving 22.1% of the vote which has lead to them losing 11 seats and gaining a further four, are still high, as accompanied by the SNP and Plaid Cymru they would get 313 + that extra 9, taking them to 322.

Nick Griffin was beaten back in Barking, the Greens have taken their first ever seat in Brighton Pavillion, Northern Ireland’s first minister has been overthrown by the Alliance Party in his seat in East Belfast.

Again a large number of people have been turned away, leading to the possibility of a legal challenge, although 10.00 was the final time to receive your ballot paper in the legal system.  Over 5000 were apparently turned away from one polling station.

Labour have made losses in Wales of four seats, gained a share of the vote in Scotland, but in England the overall swing has been around 7% to the Conservatives. The total swing so far is 5.3%

It also looks possible that the Conservatives may overshoot that estimate because with 100 seats left to declare they’re only expected to take 13 of those, but it now seems likely that more will fall considering the rest of the night’s results. But if you have a look at the percentage rise in the Conservatives vote, it has only risen by 3.9% on four years ago. Comparing that to previous governments, the share of the vote has always been higher than 36%, and a change in government has always resulted from a much larger rise in share of the vote.

You may well have heard Lord Mandelson dismiss the First Past the Post System which we’ll be discussing later, and of all the rhetoric the best of the night was Lord Ashdown who said last night, “

Many of the first few Conservative target seats survived including Birmingham Edgebaston, with some even increasing their Labour or Liberal Democrat majority. Cameron is still promising ‘to do what is right for this country.’

As always more coverage on the BBC.

Hung Parliament. The poll puts the Conservatives on 307 seats, Labour on 255, the Liberal Democrats on 59 and others on 29.
Can this poll be trusted?
Lib Dems into negative numbers, and a hung parliament. Unlikely scenario I think. Down to the results now.
Still queues in the polling stations, and people will now be unable to vote!

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/shared/election2010/liveevent/

Just to be clear no results have yet been announced, but latest figures from Sporting Index seem to place the Tories with between 325 and 330 seats, which with support from Northern Ireland would be enough to form a majority government.

5 minutes left and people all over the country are standing in queues waiting to vote. Hurry up I say! The clock’s ticking, and over at the Guardian the Labour propaganda machine is still turning against the Conservatives, hoping to stem the tide. Neil Kinnock is being mentioned, and Margaret Thatcher’s agenda is back on the cards.

The question now is simply, do the exit polls agree with these, and crucially, are they right?
Head on over to the BBC to check out the latest.

1. Three-horse Race

Before the leaders’ debates, most assumed it was a foregone conclusion. Brown would falter, Cameron would triumph and Clegg would provide comic relief. This was not the case. Clegg, addressing the camera directly, appeared to hold common ground with many voters, and days later polls showed the Lib Dems to be second or even first, leaving Labour and the Conservatives trailing. Though he was to fare worse with the other debates, following Cameron essentially adopting his combative debating style, Clegg’s performance proved the Lib Dems could still pose a threat, one viewed seriously enough to warrant plans for a  possible coalition.

2. The Posters

David Cameron’s first election posters provoked ridicule and parody throughout parliament and the internet. At last, thought Labour supporters, Cameron is coming across for what he is; airbrushed, vague and phony. Tony Blair mocked the ‘Vote for Change’ slogan. Posters were defaced. Labour was gaining the upper hand. At least, until they released their own posters, portraying ‘Dave’ as the fictional 1980s detective Gene Hunt, known for his non-PC attitude. Evidently, no-one at Labour HQ realised Hunt’s popularity. Cameron retaliated immediately, expressing his admiration for the comparison, while the Tories rattled off their own version. Labour’s campaign was not working.

3. Bigotgate

The worst was yet to come. Gillian Duffy, a widowed pensioner, confronted the PM over immigration, expressing her concern about uncontrolled Eastern European immigration. While he maintained a calm composure publicly, calling her a ‘good woman’, Brown revealed his true colours when he was heard calling her a ‘bigoted woman’, thanks to a Sky News lapel microphone. The ensuing furore ensured this was the moment the re-election campaign finally collapsed. Brown’s efforts to apologise were futile. Offering to invite Duffy to 10 Downing Street, she responded, saying how she didn’t think he would be there much longer. The scandal revealed to many Labour’s supposed dislike for its own regular voters, along with furthering the immigration debate.

4. The Wives

What better way to see the election than through the leaders’ wives? At least, if you were a newspaper editor. There was never a dull news day with exciting stories about which wife was winning the fashion battle, or the mothering melée. There was Sarah Brown, the Twitter Tsarina, well known for her charity work. Her opposition, Samantha Cameron, or SamCam, was already popular among voters, due to her down-to-earth approach and political ingenuity, engaging with the electorate through her own video logs. After announcing her pregnancy, it seemed there was nothing to stop her becoming the next ‘first lady’. Enter Miriam Clegg. Decidedly withrawn compared to the other two, Mrs Clegg was content with the occasional appearance. Her Spanish nationality struck a chord with the new, Europhile voters attracted to the Lib Dems after the leaders’ debates. Evidently, voting for someone due to their wife is a flimsy reason to vote, but nonetheless these three women were there to show their spouses’ human features, with varying success.

5. The Other Parties

The anti-Europe party UKIP gained the initiative when their outspoken leader, Nigel Farage, quit to challenge the speaker John Bercow’s Buckingham constituency. Though Bercow was gifted with a sizeable majority, the main parties had agreed not to stand agaisnt him, because his position was essentially non-political. Thanks to their absence, and barring any more plane crashes, Farage is likely to beat Bercow, since many conservative voters believe Bercow is closer to Labour than the Tories. Farage’s victory would give UKIP their first-ever MP. Meanwhile, the Green Party leader Caroline Lucas is the favourite to win the Brighton Pavilion seat. Perhaps these small movements show how democracy is not dead, with only a few parties able to gain power, and how, despite the fact it is only one single vote, your vote counts.

We’ll have more later when the results come. Let us know what you think. Leave a comment below.

NEW UPDATE : Latest Predictions say that 12% swing to the Tories would result in an extra 89 seats for the Conservatives, rising to 116 if SNP and LD seats also fall which could result in their share of the vote being anything from 299-326.

The Latest Polls average to 36 % Conservative, 28 % Labour, 27 % Liberal Democrats.  On the current seat predictions the conservatives resulting in 297 seats. But other polls have shown that in Marginal seats there has been a 12% swing to the tories, on the basis of which, an extra 10-15 seats could come his way, not sufficient to allow him to form a majority governments but with the help of Northern Ireland, sufficient to form a government. All hopes of Lib-Lab Coalition would then be ruined, even with the support of Plaid Cymru and the Scottish National Party.

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If you want to comment on the election go over to UK Polling Report, or to keep abreast of things as they happen tonight visit the BBC, who as always are offering instant feedback on everything as soon as it happens.

Any comments, breaking gaffes or news from the election, post below!

Brown sat alone, as the sun shone through his window. His hands, white with tension, gripped the mahogany desk, while he tried to spin his chair around. It was impossible. The hands were preventing a full rotation.

‘Gordon? Are you there?’ Shrilled a voice behind the door. Miliband. But which one? Brown shrugged to himself and set about trying to spin his chair. A knock. Then the door groaned open.

‘What is it, Ed?’ he asked, pulling his chair closer.

‘David, actually’ he mumbled. ‘President Obama sends his congratulations.’

‘Can I speak with him?’

‘He’s gone. Said he was rushed, had to go and play golf.’

‘Obama. He’s a good person.’ Brown checked his lapels with faux-nostalgia,before adding ‘he’d better not send me some more DVDs.’

Miliband laughed, and Brown reciprocated with a smile. Today had gone well. The Tories would be unelectable for decades. Their spending cuts had crippled Britain, and they had sought to undo all Labour’s good work. Today, Cameron packed up Downing Street, returning to opposition. He resigned, deciding to spend more time with his family. George Osborne had filled the void, but Boris Johnson was indicating his interest, next year perhaps.

‘You know, David, I think I’m getting old.’ Miliband perked up.

‘Oh, no, Gordon. You aren’t a day over forty.’ This was it. He was about to ask him to lead. All these years.

‘I just think, seeing how good it is to communicate with the British youth, would you tweet me?’

‘I beg your pardon?’ said Miliband, disappointedly.

‘Tweet me?’ He stared at Miliband, puppy-dog eye expectant.

Miliband clenched his fist. The man was never going to give up power. He stopped the Lib Dem coalition because Clegg wanted to lead. He prevented the Mandelson take over. He’d clung on for such a long time, yet nobody wanted him. And besides, nobody used Twitter anymore!

‘Yes, Prime Minister. I will ‘tweet’ you.’

‘Thank you.’ Miliband left. Brown revolved, having relinquished his grip. He was here to stay.

How long will Gordon's grin/grimace remain?

Just five months ago, the Conservative party was holding an apparently unassailable lead over Labour of around 19%. All of the newspapers were backing a landslide victory by the Tories in the General election. Even the Sun newspaper, a renowned backer of the Labour party, left their ranks and joined the growing swell of conservative followers, denouncing them at every opportunity. It even surprised me that they didn’t give every page 3 girl a tattoo saying ‘Vote Tory’ on their left breast.

Five months ago, David Cameron could sit back and laugh while Gordon Brown committed political suicide again and again, whether it be from his poor letter writing skills, or his smile that could make Wayne Rooney cringe in disgust. ‘Have I got news for you’ even stated that ‘Gordon Brown had a bad week’ was the closest thing they had to a catchphrase. Five months on however, the picture is very different. The gap, according to YouGov has been marginalised so that less people would notice it than those on the Underground. That gap is now just a 6% lead. If an election was held tomorrow, a hung parliament would be the most likely outcome with no party winning am outright majority . This last happened in 1973 with Harold Wilson and Labour eventually calling another election which produced their victory. It is unlikely that any of the three major parties would form a coalition government with each other as Nick Clegg has ruled out joining with Labour, and the price would be too high for the Conservatives, as a crucial Lib Dem policy would mean that the Conservative Government would never be able to gain a majority again.

  How did Labour manage to claw this far back into the running? The last time that Labour had a lead over the Conservatives was way back in January 2008. This shows that the crucial factor could have been the Credit Crunch, which the ruling party would naturally have been blamed for. This has now apparently come to an end, though surely people would have blamed Labour for us coming out of it last? The reason could be that Gordon Brown has somehow managed to be so dislikeable that people have started to pity the poor Premier of our nation. He has still been committing political suicide regularly, being caught in a grumpy mood and then putting on a huge smile as he neared the cameras (which with him is quite difficult to distinguish), even bullying his staff. Yet people don’t seem to care anymore whom we have representing our country at the top level… it’s all too similar to the John Terry affair. Why is John Terry cheating his team-mate any different to Gordon cheating his economy, his country, and then committing domestic abuse against the people who run his day to day life? I don’t understand it. At this rate, our parliament is going to be hung; no one will gain a majority so we are going to have another general election called by the Queen. Eventually, a winner will be ground out. I just hope it isn’t Labour, Gordon Brown has a smile that makes my brothers cry… and they’re all over twenty.